In the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

This is Weather World.

In Pennsylvania.

Today is July 17th, 2026.

I'm your host, Landon Ramirez, joined alongside by our forecaster Ben Reppert.

And Ben Smoke is still in the air today, but it is looking to dial down.

Just a hint.

With a few thunderstorms rolling through tomorrow.

Yeah, our attention is going to turn from the hazardous air quality that is still out there today to some potentially big storms to start our weekend tomorrow.

Well, looking forward to it in your short range forecast here shortly.

Later on Weather World.

Today we have our Friday forecast frenzy once again with the extended forecast with Rob Lydick and week two trends with John.

Nice.

But first here's Ben.

Thanks very much, Landon.

Smoke still certainly making headlines today, especially in the southwestern half of the Commonwealth, where visibility today has been very obscured still.

But areas to the north and east actually catching a break from the smoke with some improved air quality up through the Poconos, in the northeastern quadrant of Pennsylvania, where it actually turned into a half decent afternoon.

But the smoke still has to move back that way.

Before we completely say goodbye to it.

In fact, the high resolution model doing a good job today on picking up the patterns with not much smoke in northeastern Pennsylvania.

And it's still really bad in the southwestern half of the Commonwealth.

But we have to get the smoke to head back northeast before we can completely say goodbye to it on Saturday.

Things do look to improve pretty quickly by the time we get to about the lunch hour, but then we have to turn our attention to some potentially big storms once we get rid of the smoke on Saturday.

As advertised today, temperatures mainly in the 80s, some spots held in the 70s, especially south and west, where the smoke was a little bit thicker and it was not that humid.

Dew points generally in the 50s to around 60 for most of the day today, even some spots in the 40s.

But the humidity is already starting to creep back up, and we don't have to zoom out too far to find the really soupy stuff that's out through the Ohio Valley.

And there is a warm front that is already on the approach, dividing this more comfortable air mass from one that is really muggy, and that is going to help to fuel some drenching downpours and some strong storms as we get into the day tomorrow, there's a lot of Gulf moisture that has been gathering, streaming up from the south, and a pretty potent disturbance that is dropping in from the north.

The combination of all of this is going to evolve into a near record moist atmosphere sitting over Pennsylvania tomorrow, and it is a moist time of the year.

So that is why some active weather that is going to be capable of some flooding, downpours and some strong storms is what our attention is turning to.

Any storms tomorrow do run the risk of some of those flooding downpours.

That's why the Weather Prediction Center has done the broad brushed green risk over most of the state.

But there is an area, and I think this is actually going to expand a little bit west and south, that we're really concerned about the potential for some flooding downpours tomorrow from the southern Poconos through the Lehigh and Delaware valleys.

We also have now a level three out of five enhanced risk of severe weather painted on by the Storm Prediction Center over most of the Commonwealth.

Now the parameters are in place for some widespread severe weather, but we do have to keep in mind how fast does the smoke clear tomorrow, and there will be some convection going on in the morning.

How much instability does that sort of gobble up that could allow us to not tap into that severe potential in the afternoon?

But if all things come together in the wrong way, there is the potential for some pretty frisky thunderstorms tomorrow.

It will be a good day to have multiple ways to get those weather alerts if you're doing anything outside.

So high pressure is fleeting.

Tonight, here comes that really humid air mass back overnight.

Tomorrow looks like a pretty active day.

Again.

Multiple rounds of some showers and storms are possible.

A front goes through tomorrow evening that will clear everything away.

And Sunday is looking like a much different weather day around here.

Let's quickly take a look at one models representation of tomorrow.

There will be some isolated showers and rumbles overnight tonight, especially west tomorrow morning.

I think a batch of downpours will be ongoing in east central Pennsylvania.

And then during the afternoon we'll have to see how this evolves.

But there could be multiple rounds of showers, thunderstorms, downpours, any of which could turn strong to severe.

So tonight, still another night with the smoke that is lingering.

Not as comfortable either.

With the humidity rising and a few isolated showers and rumbles beginning to arrive in western Pennsylvania, around and just after midnight Saturday looks pretty active.

Downpours, possibly early and then again late, any of which could pose a flash flooding risk.

And I think the flash flood risk is highest in eastern Pennsylvania.

Then another batch of strong to severe storms, with a cold front starting to arrive north and west during the afternoon.

As we head into Sunday, it is a much different day.

We get rid of the thunderstorms, refreshing northwesterly breeze, seasonable conditions, a rather bright day and theoretically, no smoke.

The extended forecast is up next.

Today's edition of the extended forecast covers Monday through Friday of next week, and I don't think we're totally done with the potential for more smoky occurrences here in Pennsylvania, especially if we can tap into a northwest component to our flow.

And that may be the case later next week.

Another chance for precip on the way as we go into the week ahead as well.

First, we'll start with a look at the water vapor satellite imagery.

Usually we're showing the last 48 hours.

In this case, I'm just showing the last 24 hours because we actually had a Goes satellite outage yesterday.

The data was restored by late afternoon.

So just looking at the last 24 hours of imagery or so, you can see the reason why we've had kind of this channeling effect of smoke over the northeastern U.S.

with this big, burly area of high pressure situated off to our west.

And again, that northwest component to the flow may reemerge later next week.

Let's take a look at the upper air pattern on the European model.

First things first, I think we'll begin the week with some comfort and actually some sunshine overhead with high pressure in control, and looks like it should be a nice start to the week before we see more inclement weather arrive.

By the time we get to Tuesday, a boundary begins to approach.

That will bring an increase in cloud cover, also likely an increase in humidity and the chance for some rounds of rain and storms.

And much as we've seen in recent setups, any rain areas, any areas that do see rain rather could see heavy rain locally heavy at times as it moves through.

We are improving.

By the time this upper level piece of energy swings through on Wednesday, and then high pressure returns at the surface for Thursday and Friday.

But a northwest component to the flow may bring some smoke back into the northeast.

Here in the precipitation tracker, Monday is dry.

Here comes the approach of that boundary for Tuesday.

Just how widespread the showers will be by the middle of the day.

Still a bit uncertain, but certainly more widespread going into the later afternoon and evening of Tuesday and again locally heavy rain.

The threat there also some gusty winds with some of these storms that do fire along the boundary.

Leftovers possible going into Wednesday.

This model is overdoing it a bit.

I think the best chance would be primarily in eastern Pennsylvania, with some improving conditions going from west to east, and then Thursday and Friday.

High pressure is in control.

Not really buying that shower chance for Thursday on this particular model, thinking that we'll stay dry.

And that looks to be the case going into next Friday as well.

Humidity tracker reveals some comfort as we begin the week, so ending the weekend off with some comfort that lingers into Monday before we see the return of the Muggies briefly for Tuesday.

Then humidity begins to decrease behind that boundary on Wednesday.

And check this out for Thursday and Friday.

I think dew points will be down into the 40s and 50s here in Pennsylvania.

Notice just how deep the drier air mass settles in even places in the Deep South.

Seeing some comfort to end out next week.

So a breakdown of the extended forecast shows bright and comfortable conditions.

On Monday, we bring the return of rain chances for Tuesday with mostly cloudy and muggy conditions.

That's probably our warmest day of the week.

Temperatures there in the upper 70s to upper 80s, and then some leftover showers to wrap things up in eastern Pennsylvania on Wednesday, but gradually improving.

More sunshine and more comfort later next week, but could be smoky again.

Giannis will talk about more potential for smoke in week two trends up next.

Week.

Two trends is our opportunity always on Fridays to look beyond the extended forecast into the 8 to 14 day period, which in this case is the last week of July.

I think when we look back on it, on balance, the week will be slightly cooler than average.

It will not feature a lot of big heat and also slightly drier than average, though this time of year it's so difficult to track the exact movement of storms.

But I think on balance, the week will be drier than average.

Temperature wise, these will be the averages.

This is right in the middle of the 8 to 14 day period.

A couple of these numbers have gone down one degree since I showed you them last week.

But generally we are still near the peak in climatology.

And however, we're losing daylight now and I'm only the messenger at the rate of about 11 minutes per week.

Yep.

The slide has begun.

We're going to use what is called ensemble forecasting.

This is actually the solution from about 30 different computer model simulations of pressure up around 20,000ft.

The wind tends to follow these lines from west to east, where they bulge northward.

These ridges tend to sponsor warmer than average weather and where they dip to the south.

These troughs cooler than average weather as we go forward in time to the middle of next week, the lines begin to separate from each other.

That's because of the growing uncertainty.

The white line, by the way, is the average of the adjacent adjacent colored lines, in this case the red.

And we see this pattern that's going to set up of a northwest flow even next Saturday.

Big heat in the west, Bermuda high offshore, and Pennsylvania is in the dip in between, which means flow coming out of the northwest, which could potentially deliver more smoky skies.

It will also deliver the occasional cold frontal passage, and it will also tend to deliver temperatures that are at, or perhaps slightly below average in this pattern really persists even to Monday of week two.

We're still in this northwest flow, which generally speaking, is dry, which generally speaking, would deliver the occasional bout of low humidity.

And any disturbances embedded in this flow would generally be moisture starved.

And I think that's the story for the week two period.

We now are just averaging all the solutions together.

The warmer than average would be the tans.

Cooler than average would be the blues.

You don't see a lot of either as we go through the end of week two, suggesting to me that things will be about average, generally speaking.

So you don't see a lot of color on the week two trends tracker.

There will likely be a day or two of below average temperatures.

That's the blue there next Sunday, and it's possible that 1 or 2 of these days could be slightly below average.

But I think generally speaking, it's near average.

So July will end on a slightly cooler than average note and there'll be a lot of northwest flow.

So that means there will be some dry days.

Don't take this literally.

I just put a couple dries on here to give the impression that there will be some dry spells.

They may not end up on those days in particular, and that northwest flow may deliver more smoke.

That's it for week two trends.

We'll be back in a moment with more.

Smoky skies again through this evening and overnight in much of the Commonwealth.

So another night to stay inside as best you can.

Keep the windows closed.

You might want to tonight anyway, the humidity is already coming back up and some rain will start to roam western Pennsylvania in a few spots after midnight.

Saturday looks like a pretty active day.

Everybody is under the gun for some showers, thunderstorms, downpours, maybe multiple rounds of them.

There will still be some dry time, but with any storms tomorrow, there is a flash flood risk.

Also a severe weather threat, mainly for damaging winds and also a few tornadoes.

Can't be ruled out.

If there's a part of the Commonwealth that looks slightly less active, it's down from the Cumberland Valley over toward Dutch country.

But again, everybody under the gun for showers, storms and downpours on Saturday.

Sunday, a completely different day.

Front goes through.

Northwesterly winds will be blowing.

It will be refreshing.

Dew points dropping throughout the day, seasonably warm and rather bright as well.

So certainly a tale of two situations over the weekend.

Landon.

Good day to have multiple ways to get warnings on Saturday.

Quite the story of the past few days and the next coming days.

That wraps us up here on Weather World this week.

Next week, join us again for a new segment of Hashtag Headlines.

But from all of us here at Weather World, have a safe and fun weekend.