Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

This is weather world.

Hello and welcome to Weather World.

Today is Friday, February 20th, 2026.

I'm Brendan Schmalenberger.

Joined alongside me is our forecaster Karl Schneider.

And Karl.

It's on weekend here at Penn State.

Lots of students and families will be inside the bjcc, but on the outside this weekend looks like we might get a little bit of a snow chance coming down.

Yeah, Brandon on Sunday, that's when we could be dealing with a winter storm in parts of Pennsylvania.

I'll have the details here in a few moments.

All right.

Sounds great.

Looking forward to it, Karl.

Also coming up, make sure you stick around.

We have the extended with Rob Lydick week two trends with John Nese as well as our 15th question for trivia.

But first, here's Karl.

Thanks very much, Brandon.

We'll jump into what is the main story this weekend, which is a potentially significant winter storm in parts of Pennsylvania.

And as such, the National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches.

The timing of this storm will be from Sunday in the daytime, through the overnight hours and into the early morning hours on Monday, and right now they've highlighted areas south and east of I-78 and also areas in the Laurel Highlands.

These are areas that they think have the greatest potential for five or more inches of snow.

And I kind of think something similar.

And you'll see those details here in my snow map and just a few moments.

But first, let's start with what is the current weather setup.

And then we'll work our way into the forecast for Sunday.

Today we had some rain showers in the morning that have pushed north and east along an upper level warm front that moved through at the surface, though areas in eastern PA were locked in the clouds and cooler temperatures in the west, though, was a pretty nice day where the clouds cleared a mix down to some higher temperatures.

And in fact, some areas in southwestern Pennsylvania got into the 60s this afternoon.

This is going to be short lived, though, because we see the gradient in temperatures in Ohio and northwestern PA.

This is a cold front that's going to be passing through through the evening and overnight hours tonight.

So temperatures won't budge much and will actually start to fall in eastern Pennsylvania and everywhere will be in the 30s overnight tonight as we look to the west, to the west of this boundary, more chilly air.

So that's going to provide the cold air that's going to be in place for this potential winter storm on Sunday.

As we look at the radar and satellite, we can see some other ingredients.

One is this area of low pressure that's going to continue to spin and weaken across the Great Lakes over the next 24 to 48 hours or so.

In the next is a piece of energy moving out of the central Rockies.

And as that moves over our what we call the baroclinic zone, the area of a temperature gradient in the middle of the country.

Eventually a surface low is going to develop off the coast, and that's going to give rise to our potential winter storm by the time we get to Sunday.

So let's move from the present to Sunday here with our surface map progression starting this evening.

Notice that area of low pressure I mentioned over the Great Lakes that's going to sit there and spin.

And as a result, we'll have clouds that will be prevalent through northern PA through much of the day tomorrow.

Could have some breaks in the clouds in southern PA, but overall cooler, especially in the southwest than it was today.

Notice at this time as well, an area of low pressure is starting to get its act together across the southeast, and by tomorrow evening we'll start to see clouds increase and in the overnight hours, precipitation starting to enter parts of Pennsylvania overnight Saturday night and into Sunday.

Sunday is the main story.

When this system is really going to get its act together in the surface, low will strengthen by Sunday evening.

I think the main impacts in terms of impactful snowfall will be from Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, and those areas affected the most will be in eastern and southeastern PA with this system.

So here we'll jump into our forecast for tonight.

Chilly, cloudy and breezy across the Commonwealth, turning much colder in the southwest everywhere else, largely in the 30s.

Overnight tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

Could have some light snow going on in northwestern PA, but it's not going to amount to much of anything.

Mostly dry through the day on Saturday, with overcast conditions north of I-80 to the south, especially along the Turnpike, we could have some partial clearing by the afternoon hours, with temperatures reaching the 40s there, but overall relatively uneventful.

Let's get to Sunday because this is the more eventful day.

Starting in the morning hours, some snow will spread from southwest to northeast.

I think we'll have some issues mixing with rain at the onset in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, but as more precip starts to work its way in here, temperatures will fall below freezing and will be all snow by the evening hours.

Um, and so the snow will continue overnight Sunday night and continue into Monday morning as well, particularly for areas in far eastern Pennsylvania where the storm won't come to an end until around midday Monday.

So in terms of snowfall forecast, here's what I'm expecting.

Really not much of an event west of I 99.

With the exception of the Laurel ridges.

The main story is going to be in eastern Pennsylvania, where I think a good 2 to 5in is likely for most of the Commonwealth.

But my general theme is still high uncertainty with the track of this system.

If you pay attention to a lot of different weather outlets, you're going to see a lot of different numbers.

So I'm kind of cutting the middle ground here with the highest chance of 4 to 8in plus along and southeast of I-78 potential for a higher corridor of enhanced snowfall along the US 15 corridor.

Back in a moment with more.

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The extended forecast covers Monday through Friday of next week, so taking us through some of the final days of February.

And our pattern does feature several opportunities for precipitation starting off on the cold side and then eventually some more moderation going into the second half of next week.

But a lot more uncertainty by then.

We'll break things down by starting with the upper air pattern on the European model.

So a good consensus between most models that will have a trough in place across the eastern US to begin the workweek, and even some signs in the upper levels of our departing storm system from the weekend.

I think that will give us the chance for some leftovers as we begin the week on Monday.

Drying things out on Tuesday.

But we are watching this ripple that begins to move in in the upper levels, and I think that will bring us the chance for some scattered snow showers Tuesday night.

By the time we get to Wednesday, maybe scattered rain and snow showers lingering here in Pennsylvania.

More substantial storm system moves in as we wrap up the week for Thursday and perhaps lingering into Friday.

We see this dip here across the Midwest that I think will sponsor the chance for precipitation.

The uncertainty comes in when we're talking about precipitation types and timing.

Some models, like the European, actually have this to be more of a liquid storm.

Others have a messy mixed bag here in Pennsylvania.

At this point, we're so far out that we'll just hold on to the chance for that mixed bag going into late next week, and maybe some leftovers lingering into Friday.

Here's a look at the precipitation tracker on the European model.

We see our departing storm system from the weekend.

Some leftover snow showers possible on Monday, though don't expect any additional accumulation as we begin the week for Monday.

Tuesday is looking mainly dry on the cold side, probably the coldest day of the week.

We do see the arrival of our next storm system, a weak boundary situated to our north with some moisture riding right along that I think we'll see some light snow showers, maybe some light accumulation, predominantly across northern Pennsylvania going into Tuesday night, but even some scattered rain and snow showers possible on Wednesday.

Thursday.

On the European model, we see enough warm air being pulled into Pennsylvania, with the storm kind of positioned just off to our north and west.

That that would allow this to be a rainmaker for Pennsylvania.

Others actually have cold air still kind of locked in, allow for some snow and mix to begin before changing to rain.

So there's that messy mixed bag potential and then the chance for some leftovers going into Friday of next week.

So a breakdown of the forecast looks like this.

Cloudy and breezy and on the cool side for Monday with leftover snow showers.

Drier for Tuesday with some breaks.

Southeast, but again the coldest day of the week.

Many of us I think in the 20s for highs.

Scattered rain and snow showers on Wednesday.

More clouds lingering overhead into Thursday as well with that mixed bag potential.

We'll keep you posted as we get more information.

And then clouds and sunshine and breezy by Friday.

That's your extended forecast.

Jon Niese has week two trends up next.

The week two trends forecast segment looks at the period 8 to 14 days out.

So we're going to adjust our forecasting philosophy a little bit.

Not so much the specifics but look at the trends temperatures above below average.

And how do we feel about possible storms rolling through the area?

I think there will be a couple.

And I think on balance, the week two period likely ends up slightly above average temperature wise.

The averages are.

The so-called normals are changing very quickly.

Now, every one of these numbers is two degrees higher than it was last week on our week two trends segment, except for that 47 at Allentown.

On the high side it went up three degrees.

So we are at the time of the year where the the normals are changing pretty quickly.

So you kind of have to recalibrate every week in terms of what is average.

To make this assessment, we're going to look at forecasts of pressure up around 20,000ft.

These lines tend to to follow the winds.

So the winds blow parallel to these lines where they dip to the south.

And we see a lot of that over the northern half of the country, indicative of a couple storms rolling through.

In fact, the one will affect us on Sunday.

We call these troughs.

And where the lines bulge to the north we call these ridges.

They tend to bring with them fair weather and temperatures above average, at least in the lower half of the atmosphere.

You've already heard about the cool down early next week.

Kind of still chilly.

These blue lines indicate temperatures below average even mid day middle of next week.

But by next Saturday, I think the flow turns a little bit more westerly or southwesterly.

The green lines are representing air temperatures that are slightly above average for this time of year.

So I'm going to make both next Saturday and Sunday warmer than average.

They're Saturday.

Here is Sunday.

By the time we get to Monday of week two the lines are really starting to spread apart, a sign of the growing uncertainty.

It does look like there might be one disturbance early in week two that goes by.

Not sure whether it will be rain or snow.

This is Tuesday of week two.

By this time the lines are so jumbled.

We're just averaging all of the solutions together.

Colder than average to the north, warmer than average to the south.

That means a very fast flow by Thursday of week two.

Notice we're in between two of these warmer than average bundles.

So there's probably one more disturbance in here later in week two that could possibly help with the drought conditions across the Commonwealth.

So how do I see it?

I see a couple warmer than average days in week two to start, and maybe to finish in a couple of storms in there.

Precipitation type, always an issue.

So I just put the word mix.

March comes in like I think it typically would kind of changeable.

And at least two precipitation chances to help with our drought conditions.

That's it for week two.

Trends.

Back in a moment with more.

Impactful snowfall is likely for parts of Pennsylvania on Sunday.

Between now and then, though, looking relatively uneventful beginning with tonight.

Mostly cloudy skies across the Commonwealth turning colder, especially in areas that were bit warmer this afternoon.

Lows anywhere from the upper 20s in the north to mid 30s in the south.

Some light snow in northwestern Pennsylvania, but not really a big deal overnight tonight.

On Saturday, most of us are dry.

Relatively uneventful once again.

Highs in the 30s in the north, reaching the low to mid 40s in the southeast where we could have some partial clearing, but overall mostly a gray day on Saturday, then Sunday.

That's our big story.

Winter is not over as winter storm moves in, snow spreading from southwest to northeast in the morning hours could mix with some rain in the onset and eastern areas then changing to all snow.

So the most impactful time for snowfall and travel impacts will be from the evening hours on Sunday through the overnight hours Sunday and into Monday morning.

And here's a look at what those snow totals could end up looking like.

Main event will be in eastern Pennsylvania, with a general 2 to 5in likely.

In most of these areas, the heaviest totals look to be at this point along and southeast of I-78.

I'm also tracking the potential for heavier corridor of snow, maybe there along the Susquehanna River valley, but at this point, I don't have high enough confidence to really pinpoint exact amounts there.

Brandon.

Well, Karl, I'll make sure to avoid any travel as we get into Sunday and keep that winter gear handy by.

All right.

Thank you so much for your forecast.

Thank you for watching.

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