[♪♪] SUPPORT FOR CONVERSATIONS LIVE COMES FROM... >> FROM THE DOCTOR ROSS WPSU PRODUCTION STUDIO THIS IS CONVERSATIONS LIVE.

[♪♪] GOOD EVENING.

I'M ANNE DENNEHY.

THERE'S LESS THAN TWO WEEKS TO GO UNTIL ELECTION DAY AND ALL EYES ARE ON PENNSYLVANIA.

ALONG WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE THERE IS A CLOSE RACE FOR U.S. SENATE.

JOINING US TONIGHT AND HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF THE POLLS AND WHAT ISSUES ARE IMPORTANT TO VOTERS ARE TWO EXPERTS.

BERWOOD YOST IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRE FOR OPINION RESEARCH AT FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE.

HE IS ALSO THE DIRECTOR OF THE FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL.

HIS POLLING TRACKS THE PUBLIC'S ATTITUDES TOWARDS POLICY ISSUES AND POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS.

DENNIS PLANE IS A PROFESSOR OF POLITICS AND CHAIR OF THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICS AT JUNIATA COLLEGE.

HE HAS TAUGHT COURSES ON U.S. GOVERNMENT, STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC POLICY AND PUBLIC OPINION.

YOU, TOO, CAN JOIN TONIGHT'S CONVERSATION OUR TOLL-FREE NUMBER IS 1-800-543-8242.

AND OUR E-MAIL ADDRESS IS CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

BERWOOD YOST AND DENNIS PLANE THANK YOU BOTH FOR COMING IN TO TALK TO AND US AND JOINING US TONIGHT.

>> GOOD TO BE HERE.

>> THIS IS A CONTENTIOUS ELECTION YEAR AND PENNSYLVANIA IS PLAYING AN OUT SIZED ROLE WE ARE GETTING MORE ATTENTION THAN YEARS PAST.

I DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS WHAT IT FEELS LIKE THERE'S MORE POLLING MORE ADVERTISING, THERE'S MORE ATTENTION FROM THE CANDIDATES.

DENNIS, WHAT IS YOUR PERSPECTIVE ON THAT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S OUTSIDE ROLE IN WHAT IS HAPPENING THIS YEAR?

>> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK YOUR PERCEPTION IS CORRECT.

PENNSYLVANIA IS PROBABLY ON THE PATH TO THE WHITE HOUSE FOR EITHER KAMALA HARRIS OR DONALD TRUMP.

I THINK THE MOST LIKELY PATH TO VICTORY WILL GO THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AND IT'S 19 ELECTORAL VOTES ARE CRUCIALLY IMPORTANT.

>> RIGHT THAT IS A GOOD POINT.

THE 19 ELECTORAL VOTES THE SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL NUMBER, BUT WHY IS THAT SO IMPORTANT?

BECAUSE WE ARE SEEN AS A SWING STATE?

>> YES, WE ARE A SWING STATE.

WE ARE PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT SWING STATE AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE IT'S THE EASIEST PATH, AS DENNIS SAID FOR HARRIS AND PROBABLY TRUMP, FRANKLY.

LET'S FACE IT THERE AREN'T MANY COMPETITIVE STATES ANYMORE.

IN 2020 I BELIEVE THERE WERE SEVEN OR EIGHT THAT WERE DECIDED THAN LESS THAN FIVE PERCENTAGE POINTS.

TRUMP PNOHM PHEN PEN IN 2016.

AND LOST IN TWENTS I THINK HE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE IT BACK THIS YEAR.

IT'S THE BIGGERREST PRIZE AMONG TOES STATES THAT WERE DECIDED BY A SMALL MARGIN.

>> LET'S GO TO WHAT WE GOT THIS QUESTION FROM A PENN STATE STUDENT AND WE'LL SEE IF YOU CAN ANSWER THIS QUESTION.

WE'LL HEAR FROM THEM.

>> HI I'M CHARLIE.

I AM A FINANCE MAJOR SENIOR AND FROM NEW JERSEY MY QUESTION IS WHO IS IN THE LEAD FOR THE ELECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA.

>> THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION, WHO IS IN THE LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA AND HOW DO YOU KNOW?

>> THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION FROM OUR FINANCE MAJOR.

YOU KNOW, AT THE MOMENT IF YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THE POLL AGREGATION SITE IT IS LOOKS LIKE A TOSS UP.

IN OUR LAST POLL KAMALA HARRIS HAD A SMALL ADVANTAGE AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS MAYBE FOUR POINTS.

BUT WHEN YOU GET TO LIKELY VOTERS PEOPLE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY.

TRUMP THE LEAD.

WE REPORTED IT AS 50 TO 49.

IN ACTUALITY IT WAS 49.6 TO 49.3.

IT DOESN'T GET CLOSER THAN THAT.

SO THE POLLING AVERAGES SUGGEST IT IS A TOSS UP.

OUR OWN POLLING SUGGESTS IT IS A TOSS UP.

SO GIVEN THE TOOLS WE HAVE, IT'S REALLY AT THIS POINT HARD TO SAY WHO IS GOING TO WIN.

BECAUSE THE RACE IS SO CLOSE AND THERE'S SO MANY SMALL THINGS THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

>> RIGHT.

AND DENNIS, PENNSYLVANIA DOES HAVE THAT TRACK RECORD OF GOING BACK AND FORTH NOT STAYS IN ONE DIRECTION IT'S HARD TO SAY WHAT THE POLL NUMBERS ARE SO CLOSE.

>> IT IS A SWING STATE WHICH MEANS ONE YEAR IT CAN GO ONE WAY AND THE NEXT YEAR THE NEXT.

IT DEPENDS WHO SHOWS UP TO VOTE.

AS BERWOOD SAID IT IS A STATISTICAL TIE WELL WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

IT'S ANYONE'S RACE.

>> AGAIN WHO TURNS OUT TO VOTE.

AND THIS YEAR WE'RE SEEING PEOPLE YOU CAN CAST YOUR BALLOT EARLY, TOO YOU DON'T HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL ELECTION DAY.

WE HAVE TO WAIT-AND-SEE WHAT ROLE THAT HAS IN INCREASING VOTER TURNOUT AND IF IT DOES INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT.

LET'S LOOK AT THE REGISTERED NUMBERS OF DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IN PENNSYLVANIA.

BERWOOD PENNSYLVANIA WE HAVE A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR.

WE HAVE MORE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS IN THE STATE.

BUT THAT LEAD THAT THEY HAVE IS NARROWING, RIGHT, THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS.

DOES THAT SHED ANY LIGHT ON WHAT MIGHT BE HAPPENING?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S SORT OF AN INTERESTING PHENOMENON IN 2008, 2007 DEMOCRATS HAD A 1.2 MILLION REGISTERED ADVANTAGE IN THE STATE AND IT HAS ERODED TO THE POINT WHERE IT'S DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND VOTES VOTER ADVANTAGE FOR DEMOCRATS.

SO I THINK PART OF THAT IS THE FACT THAT BEHAVIORS OR VOTER REGISTRATION IS CATCHING UP TO HOW PEOPLE HAVE BEEN VOTING FOR SOMETIME.

THERE'S ALSO SOME, I THINK, BACKLASH AGAINST THE PARTY IN POWER WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE DEMOCRATS.

WE'LL TALK MORE HOW PEOPLE ARE FEELING ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEY BLAME JOE BIDEN FOR THAT.

THOSE TWO FACTORS HAVE CREATED THIS NARROWING GROUP GAP.

THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS IF YOU LOOK AT GOVERNOR, SENATE, PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATS HAVE WON SUB0% SINCE 2000.

IT FEELS LIKE WE'RE A COMPETITIVE STATE.

AND I THINK WE ARE.

YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE STATE HOUSE BREAKDOWNS FOR THAT.

SO ANYONE CAN WIN.

BUT DEMOCRATS HAVE REALLY HAD A GOOD RUN THE PAST 20 SOME YEARS WHEN IT COMES TO THE STATE RUNOFFSES.

>> YEAH, DENNIS ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT.

WE ARE SEEN AS A SWIK STATE BUT THE GOVERNOR IS A DEMOCRAT, THE PREVIOUS GOVERNOR WAS A DEMOCRAT, DEMOCRATS NOW HAVE A NARROW CONTROL OVER THE HOUSE.

>> SO IN 2016 I INVITED AN EXPERT TO COME AND TALK ABOUT WHETHER PENNSYLVANIA WAS STILL A SWING STATE.

BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS FOR 15 YEARS.

AND MY EXPERT IN 2016 SAID IT IS NOT A SWING STATE.

IT IS A RELIABLY BLUE LEANING STATE BECAUSE A STATE HAS TO SWING.

A WEEK LATER WE HAD THE ELECTION AND PENNSYLVANIA DID SWING WITH TRUMP'S VICTORY.

I THINK THAT PENNSYLVANIA IS BACK IN THE SWING STATE COLUMN.

AND WE'LL SEE, YOU KNOW, IF IT SWINGS BACK TO TRUMP OR IF HARRIS IS ABLE TO EEK OUT A VICTORY.

>> THAT IS AN INTERESTING POINT DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND MAYBE THE RACE FOR U.S. SENATE AND HOW THINGS TURNOUT AT THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY THAT COULD GIVE US LIGHT WHETHER PENNSYLVANIA IS, IN FACT, A SWING STATE OR NO IT'S MOVING IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION.

AND WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT-AND-SEE.

SO WE'RE GOING TO REMIND VOTERS, LISTENERS AND VIEWERS AND VOTERS IF YOU ARE JOINING US THIS IS WPSU'S CONVERSATIONS LIVE.

WE'RE TALKING WITH TWO EXPERTS AND WE WANT TO HEAR YOUR QUESTIONS.

OUR TOLL-FREE NUMBER IS 1-800-543-8242.

YOU CAN ALSO E-MAIL US AT CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

ONE ISSUE THAT COMES UP A LOT, TOO, IS YOUNG VOTERS AND WHETHER THERE'S GOING TO BE THE YOUNG VOTER ENTHUSIASM AND I KNOW IT'S DIFFICULT TO MAKE A FORECAST AS A PROFESSOR WHO WORKS WITH STUDENTS DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE WHERE THINGS MIGHT BE HEADED ON THAT FRONT?

>> YOUNG VOTERS WERE MOST ENTHUSED WHEN BARACK OBAMA WAS RUNNING AND NO ONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO RECAPTURE THAT ENTHUSIASM.

I THINK ENTHUSIASM WAS JOE BIDEN ON THE TICKET.

NOW THAT KAMALA HARRIS IS ON THE TICKET THAT ENTHUSIASM HAS PICKED UP SOME.

BUT, STILL, THE MOST COMMON RESPONSE ON CAMPUS IS POLITICS I DON'T LIKE EITHER OF THESE PEOPLE.

>> INTERESTING.

SO EVEN THOUGH THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A YOUNGER NOMINEE NOW IT MIGHT NOT BE HAVING A REALLY MAJOR EFFECT AND IMPACT.

>> YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT OR BIG DIFFERENCE TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE ELECTION.

WHEN THE ELECTION IS AS TIGHT AS IT IS, DEMOCRATS OR YOUNG VOTERS LEANING DEMOCRATIC COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IF THEY SHOW UP TO VOTE.

AND THAT'S WHERE THE ENTHUSIASM COMES IN.

WE'LL JUST HAVE TO SEE.

WE JUST HAD A VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE ON MONDAY AND THE NUMBER OF NEW REGISTRANTS IN THE LAST WEEK HASN'T BEEN REPORTED.

BUT THAT COULD BE A GOOD INDICATOR WHETHER THAT ENTHUSIASM IS THERE OR NOT.

>> THAT IS INTERESTING.

STUDENT VOTERS OFTEN HAVE THE ISSUE WHERE THEY ARE GOING TO CAST THEIR BALLOT.

BERWOOD ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT YOUNG VOTERS AND WHETHER THERE'S GOING TO BE THE ENTHUSIASM THAT WE SEE SOMETIMES BUT NOT ALL THE TIME?

>> YES, WELL, LOOK, WE RELEASED A POLL TODAY.

AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE FOUND WAS THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LIKELY VOTER POOL, YOUNGER VOTERS, PEOPLE UNDER 35, NOT JUST UNDER 25 BUT THAT COHORT IS UNDERREPRESENTED IN OUR LIKELY VOTER SAMPLE.

THEY DIDN'T MAKE IT FROM THE REGISTERED VOTER SCREEN TO THE LIKELY VOTER SCREEN.

AT THE MOMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE YOUNG VOTERS ARE UNDERPERFORMING.

WE'LL SEE IF THE NEXT FEW WEEKS CAN CHANGE THAT.

THAT IS AN ESSENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC TO LOOK AT.

BECAUSE THAT IS A DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP THAT KAMALA HARRIS DOES REALLY WELL WITH.

SHE HAS LARGE MARGINS WITH FOLKS UNDER 35.

AND SHE DOESN'T GET THEM OUT IN PROPORTIONS TO THE REGISTRATION OR CLOSE TO THAT THAT IS A BAD SIGN FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN.

>> AND PENNSYLVANIA IS A MAJOR COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY STATE.

I DON'T HAVE THE NUMBERS, BUT OBVIOUSLY COMING FROM STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA WITH PENN STATE UNIVERSITY AND THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, I CAN SEE THAT.

IT IS CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE DEPENDING WHICH WAY THAT WERE TO GO.

THIS MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO LOOK AT SOME OF THE NUMBERS.

YOU HAVE A NEW POLL OUT TODAY, FRESH POLL.

WERE THERE ANY MAJOR SHIFTS OR SURPRISES, ANY HIGHLIGHTS HAD IN YOUR FINDINGS?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE FINDINGS SUPPORTED WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR SOMETIME.

THAT IT IS A VERY CLOSE RACE.

AND YOU KNOW, WHEN I LOOK AT THE DATA ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS CLEAR TO ME IS THAT THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT IS REALLY CREATING HEADWINDS FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES UP AND DOWN THE TICKET, PARTICULARLY FOR PRESIDENT, FOR KAMALA HARRIS.

MANY PEOPLE FEEL NEGATIVELY ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

MANY PEOPLE FEEL BAD ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE AND THE COUNTRY.

SO MANY PEOPLE ARE ALSO BLAMING JOE BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATS FOR THAT.

AND THAT CREATES A DIFFICULT SALE TO THE PARTY IN POWER AND THAT MEANS KAMALA HARRIS.

SO THAT'S ONE OF THE MAJOR FINDINGS THAT NOT ONLY IS IT A TIGHT RACE PERHAPS IT'S TIGHTER THAN WE EXPECT GIVEN HOW MUCH OF THE HEADWIND THERE IS FOR DEMOCRATS.

NOW, THE PARTICULAR SLIDE WE ARE LOOKING AT HERE, TRACKS A COUPLE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS AND POLICY ISSUE THAT VOTERS THINK HARRIS OR TRUMP ARE BEST PREPARED TO HANDLE.

AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE SEEN OVER TIME IS THAT FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS HAD AN ADVANTAGE IN TERMS OF BEING THE CANDIDATE BEST ABLE TO MANAGE THE ECONOMY.

BUT AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THIS PARTICULAR SLIDE, HARRIS HAS NOROD THAT GAP IF SHE CAN CONTINUE TO NARROW THAT GAP THAT WILL BE ADVANTAGE TEENAGE JUST FOR HER KAVMENT SHE HAS STRENGTHS CHARACTER ISSUES, HONESTY, VALUES MANY PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS VIEW HER AS MORE CAPABLE ON THOSE THINGS THAN TRUMP IS.

BUT HER REAL GAP HAS BEEN AROUND THE ECONOMY.

SHE IS STARTING TO CLOSE THE GAP BETWEEN TRUMP OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IF SHE WANTS TO WIN SHE HAS TO CONTINUE THAT PROGRESS.

>> DENNIS DO YOU HAVE THOUGHTS ON THAT?

DEMOCRATS TEND TO BE AT A DISADVANTAGE OR WHAT WE'RE SEEING THAT KAMALA HARRIS IS MAKING SOME HEADWAY BUT ON THE MEASURES INCLUDING THE ECONOMY AND JUST WHAT WE'RE COMING OFF OF?

>> SURE, THE ECONOMY, I THINK, IN TERMS OF ISSUES, YOU KNOW, NUMBER ONE OR NUMBER TWO.

FIGHTING WITH IMMIGRATION.

THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN AN ADVANTAGE FOR TRUMP.

THE VOTERS VIEW HIM AS BEING ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY.

I THINK IT'S REALLY JUST THEY ARE REACTING TO THEIR PERSONAL EXPERIENCES IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS.

GAS PRICES HAVE GONE UP.

GROCERY PRICES HAVE GONE UP.

RENT HAS GONE UP.

AND MANY AMERICANS ARE STRUGGLING.

AND KAMALA HARRIS HAS BEEN THE VICE-PRESIDENT THIS WHOLE TIME.

AND SO IT IS A REALLY TOUGH SELL FOR HER TO CONVINCE VOTERS THAT YES I'VE BEEN THE VICE-PRESIDENT FOR FOUR YEARS, BUT NOW, TRUST ME THAT I'M BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY.

NOW, BERWOOD IS SHOWING THAT IS TIGHTENING AND WE'LL SEE IF SHE CAN TIGHTEN IT FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 DAYS.

>> AND RIGHT BECAUSE OF THE WAY THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PLAYED OUT, HER TIME AS A CANDIDATE WAS NARROW AND SHORTER THAN WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR WHATEVER IMPACT THAT MIGHT HAVE HAD.

>> AND COULD I ADD SOMETHING ABOUT ISSUES HERE.

AND THAT IS WE THINK THE ECONOMY IS THE BIG ISSUE FOR MANY VOTERS.

BUT A FUNNY THING HAPPENS WHEN YOU ASK THEM WHY THEY ARE SUPPORTING ONE CANDIDATE OR THE OTHER.

AND THAT IS THE ISSUE SET CHANGES A LITTLE BIT.

DENNIS MENTIONED IMMIGRATION.

PEOPLE WHO ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP, THE ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION ARE THEIR BIG ISSUES.

PEOPLE VOTING FOR HARRIS THEY RARELY MENTION THE ECONOMY THEIR INTEREST IS IN TRYING TO PROTECT ABORTION RIGHTS, WOMEN'S RIGHTS DEMOCRACY.

SO ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE IS WHAT THE FINAL SET OF ISSUES WILL BE THAT DRIVE VOTERS.

WE SUSPECT IT WILL BE THE ECONOMY.

BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING ELSE IS GOING TO EMERGE AND IN THE EXIT POLLS WE WILL SEE THAT SOMETHING ELSE WAS EQUALLY AS IMPORTANT.

IN 2022 IT WAS ECONOMIC CONCERNS AND CONCERNS ABOUT ABORTION RIGHTS.

WHICH WAS SORT OF A SURPRISE.

WE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT THAT SORT OF THING COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.

>> THAT IS A GOOD POINT.

ISN'T THAT THE OLD TRUISM IN POLITICS, POLITICAL ELECTIONS IT WAS THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID.

THERE MIGHT BE OTHER ISSUES THINKING THAT ABORTION IS A MAJOR ISSUE OR CONCERN FOR MANY VOTERS, TOO.

AND MAYBE WE CAN PULL UP THE SLIDE AGAIN THAT SHOWED TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THOSE ISSUES ARE PLAYING OUT.

YOU ARE SAYING SOME VOTERS ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION, BORDER SECURITY BUT NOT ALL VOTERS ARE FEELING THAT WAY?

>> RIGHT.

I MEAN THERE'S REALLY A LOT DEPENDING WHO THEY ARE SUPPORTING.

THAT SHOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE.

IF YOU HOLD THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ECONOMY THAT IS YOUR BIG ISSUE, YOU SAY YOU ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP.

AND THERE'S NO SURPRISE THERE.

BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THIS PARTICULAR SLIDE, YOU CAN SEE THAT IF THIS IS FOUGHT ON ECONOMIC GROUNDS IT'S PROBLEMATIC FOR DEMOCRATS AND FOR KAMALA HARRIS.

AND MAYBE FOR BOB CASEY, FOR SENATOR CASEY.

BUT IF WE'RE ABLE TO SEE SOME OTHER ISSUES EMERGE, IF THIS BECOMES A RACE ABOUT, YOU KNOW, VALUES ISSUES LIKE ABORTION RIGHTS.

YOU SEE THAT KAMALA HARRIS HAS A BIG ADVANTAGE ON THAT PARTICULAR ISSUE.

IT BECOMES AN ISSUE ABOUT CHARACTER, JUDGMENT, HONESTY THOSE ARE ALSO ADVANTAGES FOR KAMALA HARRIS.

I THINK THE END OF THIS CAMPAIGN IS GOING TO BE CENTERED AROUND TRYING TO COME UP WITH A CLOSING MESSAGE THAT GIVES EACH CANDIDATE AN ADVANTAGE.

AND THIS PARTICULAR SLIDE SHOWS YOU WHAT SOME OF THE ADVANTAGES ARE.

>> YEAH, I WONDER HOW MUCH OF A ROLE DOES FOREIGN POLICY POSITIONS ON FOREIGN POLICY OR IS THAT TYPICALLY DENNIS, NOT SOMETHING AT THE FOREFRONT OR THE TOP FIVE ISSUES FOR VOTERS?

>> IT'S LUCHLY NOT -- USUALLY NOT ON THE TOP FIVE.

WHERE WE MIGHT SEE FOREIGN POLICY COME INTO PLAY WITH SOME OF THE PALESTINIAN AMERICANS IN MICHIGAN, WHETHER THAT WILL THEY ARE TORN.

THEY THINK THAT HARRIS AND BIDEN HAVE NOT DONE A GOOD JOB AT PROTECTING PALESTINIAN RIGHTS.

THAT THEY'VE GIVEN TOO MUCH.

A GREEN LIGHT TO ISRAEL.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THEY DON'T LIKE DONALD TRUMP EITHER.

WHAT WILL THEY DO?

I THINK IT'S LESS OF AN ISSUE HERE IN PENNSYLVANIA.

BUT I THINK THAT IS A BIG ISSUE IN MICHIGAN.

>> OKAY.

BECAUSE OF WHO THE VOTERS ARE?

>> WE HAVE A LARGE POPULATION OF PALESTINIAN AMERICANS IN MICHIGAN.

>> WE ARE GOING TO COME BACK BUT WE HAVE A CALL FROM SARAH IN INDIANA.

HI, SARAH THANKS FOR CALLING AND DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR A COMMENT?

>> YES, I WAS CURIOUS ABOUT THE POLLING THAT SHOWED THAT THE YOUNGER VOTERS WERE UNDERREPRESENTED AT BEING LIKELY VOTERS DOES THAT MEAN IN THE POLL IN THE SURVEYS THEY JUST WEREN'T SURE WHETHER THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE OR NOT.

>> THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION.

CAN YOU EXPLAIN THAT FOR US WHAT THAT MEANS LIKELY VOTERS.

>> YES.

LOOK, EVERY POLL WHEN WE GET CLOSE TO THE ELECTION WE'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE VOTERS ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE.

AND WE CALL THAT CREATING A LIKELIHOOD OR A SAMPLE.

ONE OF THE THINGS WE ALWAYS DO, BECAUSE WE KNOW WHAT THE REGISTERED VOTER POOL LOOKS LIKE, WE SAMPLE AND INTERVIEW REGISTERED VOTERS.

BUT TO FIGURE OUT WHO IS GOING TO VOTED WE ASK QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR INTEREST, INTENTIONS TO VOTE THOSE THINGS.

MAYBE LOOK AT THE PAST VOTING HISTORY.

AND THEN PUT THAT TOGETHER IN A WAY THAT SAYS THIS IS THE POOL OF PEOPLE WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE.

THE LAST ELECTION IN 202077% OF REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUALLY VOTED.

SO SINCE NOT ALL REGISTERED VOTERS VOTE, YOU HAVE TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO ESTIMATE WHAT THAT POPULATION WILL LOOK LIKE WHAT LIKELY VOTERS WILL LOOK LIKE.

WHAT HAPPENED IN OUR LAST POLL WE INTERVIEWED PLENTY OF YOUNG PEOPLE AND PLENTY OF REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, PEOPLE FROM ACROSS THE STATE THE SURVEY WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WE KNOW.

BUT WHEN WE THEN CLASSIFIED PEOPLE ACCORDING TO THEIR INTEREST AND LIKELIHOOD AND INTENTIONS TO VOTE, YOUNGER PEOPLE WERE LESS LIKELY TO SEEM LIKE THEY WERE GOING TO SHOW UP AT THE POLLS.

AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT.

THAT COULD CHANGE.

THAT IS WHAT I MEANT WHEN I SAID THE YOUNG VOTERS WERE UNDERREPRESENTED IN THE LIKELY VOTER POOL.

THEY ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES.

MODERATE VOTERS WERE LESS LIKELY TO SAY THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE.

THOSE ARE THINGS EACH CAMPAIGN HAS TO WORK ON BEFORE NOVEMBER 5.

>> AND PROBABLY HAVE TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND, TOO, READ THE TEA LEAVES ON THAT.

AND DENNIS WHAT IS SOMETHING WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE POLLING RESULTS AND YOU ARE TALKING TO STUDENTS, YOU KIND OF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A NONSCIENTIFIC POINT OF VIEW BUT YOU CAN GET AN UNDERSTANDING WHAT ARE IMPORTANT TO THESE YOUNGER VOTERS AND YOU WERE TALKING MAYBE THEY ARE GOING TO TURNOUT AND MAYBE THEY AREN'T.

DO YOU GET THAT FEELING?

>> WELL IT'S REALLY HARD TO KNOW.

WE'LL SEE.

THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY ON CAMPUS.

WE'LL SEE IF IT'S ENOUGH TO BOOST TURNOUT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

NOW, WE KNOW THAT YOUNG VOTERS WILL NOT VOTE AT THE SAME RATE THAT SENIORS WILL.

BUT IF THEY INCREASE THEIR TURNOUT JUST A LITTLE BIT, THEN THAT WILL MESS UP THE LIKELY VOTER MODELS AND CAN SHIFT THE ELECTION.

AND SO THAT'S ACTUALLY SORT OF WHAT HAPPENED IN 2016.

IF YOU REMEMBER, THE LIKELY VOTER MODELS SAID THAT HILLARY CLINTON WAS GOING TO WIN.

BUT WE NOTAH WE ENDED UP WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP BECAUSE THE LIKELY VOTER MODELS UNDERESTIMATED THE NUMBER OF SORT OF DISENCHANTED MEN WHO HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICIPATING, BUT WERE WILLING TO SHOW UP FOR TRUMP.

THAT WAS HIGHER.

AND THAT PUSHED TRUMP OVER THE TOP.

IF THE LIKELY VOTER MODELS ARE WRONG NOW IT COULD PUSH HARRIS OVER THE TOP.

WE'LL HAVE TO SEE.

>>>> THAT RAISES AN IMPORTANT ISSUE, PEOPLE WHO DON'T UNDERSTAND CAN YOU EXPLAIN GIVE US A QUICK LESSON ON WHAT MAKES A SOLID POLL AND HOW DO YOU CORRECT FOR THOSE ERRORS?

>> SO YOU KNOW, THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN AN EASIER ANSWER 20 YEARS AGO.

BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS REALLY HAPPENED IS THE WAY THAT POLLING IS CONDUCTED HAS CHANGED TREMENDOUSLY.

I WROTE A LITTLE ARTICLE NOT LONG AGO IN MY NEWSLETTER SITE ABOUT THE EXPANSION OF DIFFERENT METHODOLOGIES AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS IF YOU ARE CONSUMING A POLL READING A POLL TO UNDERSTAND EXACTLY HOW THE POLLSTER DID IT.

AND I WILL SPEAK FOR MYSELF.

THE WAY WE DO OUR POLLS TO GET A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE, IS WE SAMPLE FROM THE LIST OF REGISTERED VOTERS.

EVERYONE WE SAMPLE WE MAIL THEM A POSTCARD WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THE POLL.

AND INCLUDING HOW THEY ANSWERED THE POLL.

WE ALLOW THEM TO CALL US ON A TOLL-FREE NUMBER.

WE ALLOW THEM TO COMPLETE THE SURVEY ON-LINE IF THEY PREFER.

OR THEY CAN WAIT FOR US TO CALL THEM.

PEOPLE THAT DON'T CALL US BACK, WE WILL E-MAIL THEM AND WE WILL TEXT THEM.

AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW-UP WITH PHONE CALLS.

WE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO INVITE PARTICIPATION.

AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT THE BEST POLLS DO.

THEY TRY TO INVITE AS MUCH PARTICIPATION AS THEY CAN FROM THE SAMPLE THAT THEY HAVE.

AND THEN, ONCE THEY GET THAT DATA BACK, THEY ADJUST THE DATA TO THE WAY THAT THAT SAMPLE SHOULD LOOK.

FOR INSTANCE IN PENNSYLVANIA WE KNOW THAT REGISTERED VOTERS SHOULD BE 44% DEMOCRAT, 41% REPUBLICAN, 15% INDEPENDENT AND UNAFFILIATED.

SO WE MAKE ADJUSTMENTS SO OUR REGISTERED VOTER SAMPLE HAS THOSE CHARACTERISTICS AMONG SEVERAL OTHERS.

>> THAT IS INTERESTING AND HELPFUL TO THINK ABOUT.

AND WE HAVE A CALL FROM BILL IN JOHNSTOWN.

HI BILL, THANK YOU FOR CALLING.

DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

>> WELL, YES.

I COULD HAVE COMMENTS.

I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE INFLATION AND ALL THAT STUFF.

BUT THINGS LIKE CANNED VEGETABLES, BANANAS THEY ARE BACK DOWN CLOSE TO PRECOVID PRICES NOW.

AND PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT STUFF.

BUT THE STOCK MARKET UP ALMOST 20,000 POINTS IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS.

BUT MY REAL QUESTION HAS TO DO WITH ADVERTISING FOR THE POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS.

FIRST OF ALL I THINK IT STARTS WAY TOO SOON.

AND HOW DO YOU FIGURE OUT WHO'S TELLING THE TRUTH?

HOW MANY HALF TRUTHS, HOW MANY PARTIALLY TRUE OR TOTALLY TRUE IT'S FRUSTRATING AND THEY REPEAT THE SAME ONES OVER AND OVER AGAIN ADD NAUSEAM.

WHY CAN'T SOMETHING BE DONE ABOUT HOLDING THESE PEOPLE'S FEET TO THE FIRE AND TELL THE TRUTH.

>> BILL, YEAH, THANK YOU THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION.

AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE I'M SURE BOTH OF YOU HEAR A LOT OF TIMES HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT IS FACTUAL AND WHAT IS TRUE WHERE TO GET THAT INFORMATION.

BECAUSE IF YOU ARE A VOTER YOU COULD END UP SPENDING A LOT OF TIME DOING THE RESEARCH AND THAT IS NOT A LOT OF TIME THAT PEOPLE HAVE.

DENNIS DO YOU HAVE THOUGHTS ON THE SECOND PART OF HIS COMMENTS THERE?

>> YEAH, I THINK THERE IS A COUPLE THINGS.

I THINK THAT THE CAMPAIGN ADS ARE ALL SORT OF HALF TRUTHS AND CLEVERLY FRAMED DATA.

YOU REALLY HAVE TO TURN TO THE MEDIA AND, I REFER HERE LIKE TO THE LEGACY MEDIA.

THAT'S THE BEST WAY TO GET ACCURATE INFORMATION.

SOCIAL MEDIA YOUR FRIENDS, YOUR FRIEND GROUP IS PROBABLY NOT THE BEST WAY TO GO.

OF COURSE, A LOT OF VOTERS GET INFORMATION ON-LINE.

I THINK THE BEST PLACE FOR THAT IS THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS.

THEY HAVE A SITE CALLED VOTE 411.

411 MEANING INFORMATION.

SO THERE YOU CAN GET A NONPARTISAN SCENE OF WHAT THE CANDIDATES' STANCES ARE ON THE VARIOUS ISSUES.

>> IT'S INTERESTING.

STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH THIS IS WHERE THE CANDIDATES ARE STANDING ON THE ISSUES WITHOUT THE OTHER NOISE IN THERE.

BERWOOD ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT ON GOOD SOURCES OF INFORMATION?

AND ALSO MAYBE THE ISSUE OF WHY CANDIDATES ARE ALLOWED TO MAYBE STRETCH THE TRUTH WHEN IT COMES TO CAMPAIGNING?

>> WELL, LOOK, I MEAN, ONE OF THE MOST PROTECTED RIGHTS IN OUR NATION IS POLITICAL SPEECH.

AND SO WE'RE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT LIMITING POLITICAL SPEECH IN ANYWAY.

BECAUSE THAT RUNS COUNTER TO OUR FOUNDING PRINCIPLES.

SO, YOU KNOW, BECAUSE OF THAT, YOU HAVE TO BE A GOOD CONSUMER.

AND I THINK DENNIS IS RIGHT.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF SOURCES THAT DO FACT CHECKS.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF SOURCES OF INFORMATION.

IN FACT ONE OF THE BEST SOURCES OF INFORMATION IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN ECONOMICS OR THE BUDGET DEFICIT OR WHATEVER, IS THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF.

I DON'T THINK PEOPLE REALIZE HOW MUCH NONPARTISAN GOVERNMENTAL INFORMATION THE GOVERNMENT PRODUCES EVERY YEAR.

AND SO WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS OR ECONOMIC GROWTH, YOU CAN ALSO TURN TO THOSE KINDS OF PLACES JUST TO GET A PICTURE FOR YOURSELF.

I THINK THE BEST ADVICE IS BE SKEPTICAL.

AND GO TO PLACES YOU TRUST.

AND REMEMBER THAT THERE ARE FOREIGN ACTORS WHO ARE TRYING TO SWAY THE WAY WE VIEW THESE ISSUES.

SO BE REALLY CAREFUL WHAT YOU CONSUME.

>> YEAH, THAT IS GREAT ADVICE AND I LIKE THE IDEA OF GOING TO MULTIPLE SOURCES OF INFORMATION.

SO YOU HAVE MAY HAVE A FAVORITE NEWSPAPER OR RADIO SHOW, BUT YOU CAN GO TO THE GOVERNMENT SOURCE AND GETTING MULTIPLE SOURCES AND INFORMATION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A CALL FROM JEFF IN STATE COLLEGE IS THAT THE SAME?

DO WE HAVE A NEW CALL?

HI YOU ARE ON THE AIR CAN WE HELP YOU?

DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

>> I HAVE A QUESTION.

WHY DO YOUR GUESTS WHY DO YOUR GUESTS THINK THAT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS NOT RISEN TO MORE PROMINENCE AS KEY ISSUES?

TALKED ABOUT BY THE CANDIDATES.

>> THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION THANK YOU FOR THAT.

SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME OF THE TOP ISSUES AND I MENTIONED FOREIGN POLICY IS AN ISSUE THAT DOESN'T GET AS MUCH ATTENTION ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHY THAT DOESN'T RISE?

>> CLIMATE CHANGE IS A BIG ISSUE FOR DEMOCRATS AND ESPECIALLY YOUNGER DEMOCRATS.

PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT YOUNGER VOTERS ARE NOT PARTICIPATING AT THE SAME RATES.

SO CAMPAIGNS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REACH OUT.

NO, IT'S SORT OF A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD.

IF THE CAMPAIGNS WERE TO TALK MORE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE THEN THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET MORE OF THE YOUNG VOTERS OUT TO VOTE.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS DEFINITELY AN IMPORTANT ISSUE.

BUT IT DOESN'T COME CLOSE TO THE ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION AND SOME OF THESE OTHERS.

AND REALLY ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES IS JUST THE STATE OF OUR DEMOCRACY.

THE STRENGTH OF OUR DEMOCRACY.

WHETHER WE WANT SORT OF FOUR MORE YEARS WITH AN INTERLUDE OF TRUMP.

OR THERE IS A BIG CONTENTION OF VOTERS WHO WANT TO MOVE ON TO SOMETHING ELSE.

>> THAT IS A GREAT POINT.

ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT, TOO WHY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES DON'T NECESSARILY RISE TO THE TOP?

>> YES.

I THINK WHAT HAPPENS AT THE BEGINNING OF A CAMPAIGN IS THAT THE CANDIDATES, THEMSELVES, THINK ABOUT THE ISSUES THAT THEY ARE BEST POSITIONED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.

AND THE BEST DISTINGUISH THEM FROM THEIR OPPONENT.

SO THERE'S ONLY SO MUCH TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S GONE ON FOREVER BUT THERE IS LIMITED TIME IN A CAMPAIGN.

THERE ARE LIMITED RESOURCES.

AND THERE'S ONLY SO MUCH YOU CAN TALK TO VOTERS ABOUT AND WHAT THE CAMPAIGNS TRY TO PRIORITIZE ARE THE ISSUES THAT GIVE THEM THE BIGGEST ADVANTAGES THAT ARE EASIEST FOR THEM TO TALK ABOUT AND RUN ON BASED ON THEIR RECORD OR PAST EXPERIENCE.

AS WE'VE SAID EARLIER WHEN WE ASK QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM, THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISN'T AT THE TOP RIGHT NOW.

IF IT WERE, I GUARANTEE YOU, THE CANDIDATES WOULD HAVE A MESSAGE ABOUT IT.

BUT AT THE MOMENT, IT SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY FOUGHT IN THE GROUNDS OF THE ECONOMY AND, I THINK, DEMOCRACY AND ABORTION RIGHTS AS BEING THE BIG THEMES AND THAT IS WHAT THE CANDIDATES WANT TO TALK ABOUT.

>> IF I COULD ADD QUICKLY ONE PROBLEM THAT CLIMATE CHANGE OFTEN HAS IS THAT IT'S VIEWED AS MORE OF A LONG-TERM PROBLEM.

SO VOTERS IN THIS ELECTION ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY NOW, INFLATION NOW, GAS PRICES NOW.

AND, YES, CLIMATE CHANGE IS A HUGE PROBLEM.

BUT IT'S NOT AN IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IN THE SAME WAY THAT SOME OF THESE OTHER MORE BREAD AND BUTTER ISSUES ARE.

>> THAT IS A GREAT POINT.

>> AND IT'S EXTREMELY COMPLEX.

AND NOT THAT OUR POLITICAL DIALOGUE AT THE MOMENT IS SO HIGH FLYING THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO EXPRESS THAT COMPLEXITY.

BUT THE TRUTH IS, MANY OF THESE ISSUES IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH A CONCISE MESSAGE ABOUT ACTIONS THAT WON'T ALIENATE A LOT OF VOTERS THAT MAKES IT ALSO HARD TO TALK ABOUT.

>> GREAT, GREAT POINT.

AND SOMETIMES AS AN ISSUE IT GETS PITTED AGAINST OTHER ISSUES, TOO, ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY OF IT.

WE'LL REMIND VIEWERS AND LISTENERS IF YOU ARE JUST JOINING US I'M ANNE DENNEHY AND THIS IS WPSU'S CONVERSATION LIVE.

WE ARE TALKING TO TWO EXPERTS AND WE WANT TO HEAR YOUR QUESTIONS.

OUR TOLL-FREE NUMBER IS 1-800-543-8242.

AND YOU CAN E-MAIL US AT CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A QUESTION AND THIS IS FROM MARY IN STATE COLLEGE.

HI MARY THANKS FOR CALLING.

DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR A COMMENT?

>> I DO.

THANKS FOR TAKING MY QUESTION.

FIRST OF ALL, TO ME THE WORD ECONOMY IS SUCH A BROAD, BROAD WORD.

AS FORMER CALLER MENTIONED THE STOCK MARKET IS UP AND THINGS ARE BETTER AFTER COVID.

SO WHEN YOU ASK A -- WHEN THE POLLERS ASK A QUESTION LIKE THAT, IT JUST SEEMS TO BROAD.

ARE THEY -- HOW DO THEY DECIDE TO ASK THAT WITHOUT BREAKING IT DOWN THAT IS MY QUESTION?

>> THANK YOU, MARY THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION.

BERWOOD DO YOU WANT TO START TACKLING THAT.

THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL IF YOU LOOK AT IT AND DIFFERENT FACTORS BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT FEELS THAT WAY.

HOW DO YOU TACKLE THAT?

>> YES, I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE THAT SLIDE FROM THE POLL WE CAN SHOW ABOUT HOW PEOPLE ARE FEELING ABOUT THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES.

BUT YOU KNOW WE DO ASK A BROAD QUESTION ABOUT WHAT CONCERNS VOTERS, WHAT IS THE MOST PROBLEM FACING THE STATE TODAY.

AND THEY CAN REALLY TELL US ANYTHING.

AND WE DO GROUP ALL SORTS OF QUESTIONS INTO ALL SORTEDS OF ANSWERS INTO THE ECONOMY BUCKET.

BUT WHAT WE FOUND WAS THAT IF YOU ASK PEOPLE ABOUT THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES AND SAY I'M WORSE OFF TODAY THAN I WAS A YEAR AGO.

THE REASON THEY TELL US THAT IS BECAUSE OF INFLATION.

THE COST OF LIVING.

THE PRICE OF THINGS.

AND I KNOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD SAY, HEY THINGS ARE BETTER.

AND MANY INDICATORS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ARE BETTER.

BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THIS PARTICULAR IMAGE FROM OUR MOST RECENT POLL WE'VE TRACKED HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES GOING BACK TO THE 2016 ELECTION AND THE RED BARS REPRESENT PEOPLE SAID THEY ARE WORSE OFF A YEAR AGO AND THE GREEN THEY ARE BETTER OFF.

AND YOU CAN SEE THAT RIGHT NOW, FAR MORE PEOPLE SAY THEY ARE WORSE OFF FINANCIALLY, PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE COST OF LIVING AND INFLATION.

THAN SAY THEY ARE BETTER OFF.

GO BACK TO OCTOBER 2020 MORE PEOPLE SAID THEY WERE BETTER OFF THAN WORSE OFF FINANCIALLY.

I THINK THIS IS PART OF PEOPLE REMEMBER WHEN THEY SAY THE ECONOMY WAS BETTER UNDER TRUMP.

AT THE TIME WE ASKED THE QUESTION, IT WAS.

THEY FELT THAT IT WAS BETTER THAN IT IS NOW.

SO I THINK THAT IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE RESPONDING TO.

THE CALLER IS RIGHT.

THE ECONOMY IS A BIG THING AND IT IS A COMPLEX THING.

BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT YOU WANT TO RUN ON AND IT'S RELATIVELY EASY TO BLAME THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOR THE RUN UP IN PRICES BASED ON THE POLICIES THEY PASSED.

WHICH PEOPLE ARE ANGRY ABOUT.

SO IT MAKES IT A GOOD CAMPAIGN ISSUE FOR REPUBLICANS.

AND I WOULD SAY IT'S THE REALITY FOR MANY PEOPLE BASED ON WHAT THEY'VE TOLD US NOW AND IN THE PAST.

>> YEAH.

THAT'S THE GREAT POINTS AND ALSO IT DOES RAISE THE QUESTION OF OKAY THE CALLER SAID SOME FOOD PRICES ARE COMING DOWN AND THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING UP BUT THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT EVERYONE IS FEELING.

>> YEAH, I THINK THAT IS A REALLY IMPORTANT POINT HERE.

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE ECONOMY IS ACTUALLY DOING, WHAT MATTERS IS THE WAY IT FEELS TO THE INDIVIDUAL VOTER.

SO YES, MAYBE SOME PRICES ARE COMING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT THEY WERE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC.

OTHERS ARE NOT.

MILK AND EGGS AND EVERYONE BUYINGS MILK AND EGGS.

AND SO IT'S REALLY PERSONAL HOW IT FEELS TO THEM.

THAT'S WHAT MATTERS THAT IS WHAT DRIVES PEOPLE TO VOTE.

AND IN TERMS OF THE STOCK MARKET KEEP IN MIND, LARGE, LARGE PORTIONSES OF THE POPULATION ARE NOT INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET.

AND SO FOR THEM, IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING UP.

AND IN FACT, IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THIS FEELING LIKE OTHERS ARE BENEFITING AND I'M BEING LEFT BEHIND.

>> INTERESTING.

SO WHILE THE ECONOMY LOOKS LIKE IT'S DOING GREAT ON PAPER AND THERE MUST BE PEOPLE WHO ARE ENJOYING IT IF I'M LIVING IN A RURAL AREA OR SOMEWHERE, WHERE IT'S DIFFICULT TO GET A JOB AND CONTINUES TO HAVE RAISES THAT KEEP UP WITH DPLATION.

>> YEAH, I'M LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK MY PRICES ARE GOING UP MY CREDIT CARD DEBT IS SWELLING I DON'T KNOW WHO THE PEOPLE ARE INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET BUT IT'S NOT BENEFITING ME.

>> YEAH.

SO THIS ISSUE IS ONE THAT IS COMING UP A LOT IN THE SENATE RACE AND I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT.

THE RACE FOR U.S. SENATE IN PENNSYLVANIA IS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION LIKE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

SO WE HAVE THE DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT BOB CASEY AND RUNNING AGAINST DAVID MCCORMICK.

AND THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT SAYS THE RACE IS A TOSS UP.

BERWOOD WHAT IS YOUR POLLING FINDING ON THIS RACE?

WHAT ARE WE SEEING?

>> OUR POLL SHOWS A TOSS UP AS WELL.

NOW, IT DEPENDSES, AGAIN, HOW YOU COUNT THE VOTERS.

IF YOU LOOK AT REGISTERED VOTERS SENATOR CASEY HAS A DECENT SIZED LEAD.

NOT OUTSIDE OF THE MARGIN OF ERROR BUT A DECENT SIZED LEAD.

IF YOU LOOK AT LIKELY VOTERS HE STILL HAS AN ADVANTAGE BUT IT IS ABOUT A POINT.

THIS RACE IS TIGHT AND CONSIDERABLY OVERTIME AND IN PART IT'S TIGHTENED BECAUSE REPUBLICAN VOTERS HAVE GOTTEN TO KNOW DAVE McCORMICK AND MORE SUPPORT HIS CANDIDACY NOW THAN THEY DID IN AUGUST.

AND THE IMAGE YOU SEE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FAVORABLE RATINGS OF THE TWO CANDIDATES AND YOU CAN SEE DURING THE COURSE OF THE CAMPAIGN, SENATOR CASEY'S NUMBERS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT.

THAT IS NO SURPRISE.

IN PENNSYLVANIA WE'VE KNOWN SENATOR CASEY FOR A LONGTIME.

WARM FRONT HE WAS A SENATOR HE WAS A STATE TREASURER, AUDITOR GENERAL.

SO HE'S GOT A LONG LINE OF PUBLIC SERVICE IN THE STATE.

DAVID MCCORMICK HAD TO BE BETTER KNOWN BY VOTERS.

HE INCREASED THE PORTION OF VOTERS THAT RECOGNIZE HIM.

AS HE DID THAT MORE REPUBLICANS, NOT SURPRISED IN THE TIMES THAT ARE POLARIZED REPUBLICANS ARE SAYING THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE FOR HIM IN SEPTEMBER OR AUGUST.

AND SO AGAIN, THIS GETS BACK TO THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION OF THIS ELECTION.

WHAT'S THAT FINAL SET OF VOTERS GOING TO LOOK LIKE?

>> AND WHO IS THAT FINAL SET OF VOTERS.

DENNIS DO YOU HAVE THOUGHTS ON THAT THE SENATE RACE AND THE TENSION AND ITS IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE U.S. SENATE WHICH COULD FLIP?

>> YES.

I THINK THE SENATE IS LIKELY TO FLIP IF DEMOCRATS WANT TO KEEP, OF COURSE, WANT TO KEEP THE SENATE.

BUT IF THEY HAVE ANY HOPE OF DOING SO THEY HAVE TO DO SO WITH CASEY'S VOTE.

THEY ALSO HAVE TO WIN IN MONTANA.

WHICH SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

SO MY GUESS IS THAT DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE THE U.S. SENATE.

BUT THE QUESTIONS HOW MANY SEATS WILL THEY LOSE IN THE PROCESS.

>> INTERESTING.

SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP, DO YOU HAVE FORECASTS FOR THE U.S. HOUSE, TOO?

>> WELL, THE HOUSE IS LIKE A TOSS UP LIKE THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.

SO AND THAT'S HARDER TO PREDICT THERE IS A LOT MORASS BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE DEMOCRATS HAVE ABOUT 50/50 CHANCE THAT WOULD BE FLIPPING IT.

I THINK IT'S 49, 51.

BUT ANYTHING THAT IS IN THE 48, 52 RANGE IS ESSENTIALLY A TIE WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

>> BERWOOD THOUGHTS ON THAT?

DO YOU WANT TO PUT YOURSELF ON THE LINE WHO IS GOING TO CONTROL THE HOUSE OR SENATE?

>> NO, I DON'T.

I WILL SAY THIS.

I THINK THAT OUR VIEWERS WOULD BE WISE TO REMEMBER THAT POLLING AND THE POLL RESULTS THAT WE USE TO GUIDE OUR THINKING, THEY ARE NOT PRECISION INSTRUMENTS.

THEY CAN ONLY TELL US SO MUCH.

AND I THINK THEY CAN TELL US A LOT OF VALUABLE THINGS.

BUT WHEN A RACE IS BASICALLY TIED, IT'S REALLY NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO PICK A WINNER.

KEEP THAT IN MIND.

THE POLLS THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT ELECTIONS.

THE POLLS ARE BASICALLY DESCRIPTIONS AT A POINT IN TIME.

PEOPLE MAY USE POLLS TO PREDICT.

BUT IT'S NOT THE SAME THING.

AND IT REQUIRES A LOT OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT WHAT THE VOTERS WILL LOOK LIKE.

AND WE DON'T KNOW THAT YET.

SO I WOULD SAY KEEP THAT IN MIND.

THAT THERE IS A LOT OF POSSIBILITIES HERE FROM A VERY, VERY CLOSE RACE TO ALSO THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN PAST HISTORY THAT WHEN WE SEE A MOVEMENT THAT MOVEMENT CAN BE IN THE SAME DIRECTION.

YOU COULD HAVE A BIGGER THAN EXPECTED OUTCOME THAT SWEEPS ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER TO VICTORY.

WHETHER IT'S IN THE HOUSE OR THE SENATE.

SO KEEP THAT IN MIND, TOO, THERE ARE OFTEN -- THERE'S OFTEN MOVEMENT EN MASS.

IT ISN'T ONE THING HAPPENS IN THE HOUSE AND ONE THING HAPPENS IN THE SENATE AND FOR PRESIDENT.

THESE OFTEN MOVE TOGETHER.

SO IF THERE IS A BREAK, WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN ONE DIRECTION.

>> AND THE ANALOGY I LIKE TO USE IS POLLS ARE LIKE TRYING TO PREDICT WHO IS GOING TO WIN A FOOTBALL GAME.

YOU CAN GET EXPERTS TOGETHER, AND IT CAN BE A CLOSE GAME BETWEEN THE NUMBER ONE AND NUMBER TWO TEAM, AND EXPERTS ARE GOING TO TELL YOU WHO THEY THINK IS GOING TO WIN BUT YOU HAVE TO PLAY THE GAME TO FIND OUT WHO THE WINNER IS GOING TO BE.

AND THE EXPERTS COULD BE WRONG.

>> RIGHT.

AND TO EXTEND YOUR FOOTBALL ANALOGY YOU CAN PRAY BETTER OR HAVE BAD LUCK OR OUTSIDE FACTORS.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> OKAY.

WE GOT THIS COMMENT FROM A VOTER IN PENNSYLVANIA.

WE ARE GOING TO LISTEN WHAT SHE HAS TO SAY THIS IS GOOD TIME TO HEAR WHAT SHE HAS TO SAY.

>> I AM CONVINCED AND I BASE THIS ON THE WORK I'VE DONE WITH OTHER CAMPAIGNS I KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF SLEEPER PROGRESSIVES OUT THERE WHO HAVE NOT STEPPED UP TO VOTE OR EXPRESS THEIR OPINIONS.

I KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY WANT TO MOVE FORWARD FROM ALL THIS.

>> WHAT ABOUT THAT IDEA THAT THERE'S SLEEPER SLEEPER PROGRESSIVES BUT THERE'S BEEN THAT ISSUE ABOUT SLEEPER VOTERS WHO KNOW THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP AND THEY DID.

VOTERS WHO HAVE NOT VOTED IN THE PAST.

>> THIS IS THE BEAUTY OF OUR DEMOCRACY.

WHEN YOU STEP INTO THE POLLING PLACE INTO THE VOTING BOOTH YOU PULL THE CURTAIN AND OTHER PEOPLE DON'T KNOW HOW YOU ARE GOING TO VOTE.

SO WE DON'T KNOW IF THAT WOULD BENEFIT HARRIS, IF IT COULD BENEFIT TRUMP.

ONE THING THAT THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN IS TARGETING IS REPUBLICAN WOMEN, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS ISSUE OF ABORTION.

SAYING HEY, LOOK, WHEN THAT CURTAIN IS CLOSED AND YOUR HUSBAND DOESN'T KNOW HOW YOU'RE GOING TO VOTE, YOU KNOW, GO AHEAD AND FILL IN THAT BUBBLE FOR HARRIS.

SO THIS IS, I THINK THE, THE SAME IDEA OF THIS SORT OF SLEEPER PROGRESSIVE.

WE DON'T KNOW.

THAT IS WHY WE HAVE THAT ELECTION.

>> GREAT POINT.

BERWOOD THOUGHTS ON THAT THIS IDEA OF THE SLEEPER VOTER?

>> I'VE HEARD THIS IN MANY FORMS OVER THE YEARS.

I'VE BEEN POLLING SINCE THE 80s IN THIS STATE.

AND IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY CYCLE THERE'S A CLAIM THAT SOMEONE IS BEING MISSED IN THE POLLS AND WE SHOULD UNSKEW THE POLLS IN SOME WAYS.

AND SOMETIMES THE POLLS GET IT RIGHT.

SOMETIMES THEY MISS BY A LITTLE BIT MORE.

SOMETIMES THERE ARE EVENTS AT THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN THAT CAN AFFECT THE RESULTS.

I'VE HEARD IT BEFORE.

I THINK POLLSTERS MAKE EVERY EFFORT THEY CAN TO INCLUDE AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE IN THEIR SAMPLES.

THERE'S NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT PEOPLE WHO AREN'T WILLING TO PARTICIPATE.

YOU WILL MISS THEM.

WE OBVIOUSLY DON'T KNOW ABOUT THEM.

I THINK THE OTHER THING, THOUGH AND IT'S IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER, IS THAT THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE WHO WILL MAKEUP THEIR MIND WHEN THEY GO INTO THE VOTING BOOTH.

AND NO POLL CAN PREDICT HOW SOMEONE'S GOING TO BEHAVE IF THEY DON'T KNOW HOW THEY ARE GOING TO BEHAVE.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE LATEST POLL THAT WE RELEASED TODAY, THERE'S PROBABLY 7% OF THE SAMPLE WHO SAID I'VE PICKED A CANDIDATE BUT I MIGHT CHANGE MY MIND.

SOME OF THEM WILL CHANGE THEIR MINDS BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.

SOME WILL CHANGE WHEN THEY WALK IN THE BOOTH.

AND THAT'S JUST THE NATURE OF OUR DEMOCRACY.

>> AND 7% COULD BE ENOUGH TO SWING THE ELECTION IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER.

>> MAKE THINGS LOOK VERY DIFFERENT THAN THEY DO NOW.

>> I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE ISSUE OF ABORTION WHAT ROLE IT CAN HAVE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND WHAT ROLE IN THE SENATE RACE IN PENNSYLVANIA.

SO THE CANDIDATES HAVE DIFFERENT POSITIONS ON IT NOW.

THERE'S THE QUESTION OF OKAY IT'S UP TO THE STATES TO DECIDE.

IS IT STILL THAT SOMETHING PEOPLE FEEL WE'RE GOING TO VOICE OUR OPINION ABOUT THIS IN THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS AS WELL AS THE STATE ELECTIONS.

DENNIS?

>> CERTAINLY THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN WANTS PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS TO BE WORRIED THAT A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION COULD FOR EXAMPLE, IMPLEMENT A NATIONAL ABORTION BAN.

TRUMP HAS SAID -- HE SAID BOTH HE IS IN FAVOR AND NOT IN FAVOR OF IT.

SO HARRIS VOTERS OR HARRIS ORGANIZERS WANT IT TO BE AN ISSUE.

BUT BECAUSE PENNSYLVANIA HAS NOT ROLLED BACK ABORTION RIGHTS, I THINK IT'S NOT AS IMPORTANT OF AN ISSUE FOR THOSE VOTERS IN PENNSYLVANIA.

>> OKAY.

INTERESTING.

DEPENDING WHAT STATE YOU ARE IN IT MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT.

>> YEAH.

AND PART OF THE REASON KAMALA HARRIS IS GOING TO TEXAS WHICH IS SORT OF UNUSUAL 12 DAYS BEFORE AN ELECTION BECAUSE TEXAS IS NOT A SWING STATE.

BUT IT'S BECAUSE OF THIS ISSUE OF ABORTION.

SHE IS GOING TO TEXAS WHICH HAS MADE SORT OF THE MOST RESTRICTIVE ABORTION PROHIBITIONS TO MAKE THE POINT THAT SHE WILL BE THERE TO FIGHT FOR ABORTION RIGHTS.

NOT BECAUSE IT'S GOING TO WIN VOTERS IN TEXAS.

BUT SHE'S HOPE TO GO WILL WIN VOTERS IN SWING STATES LIKE PENNSYLVANIA.

>> INTERESTING.

BERWOOD THOUGHTS ON THAT THE ROLE OF ABORTION IN THIS ELECTION?

>> YEAH, LOOK, THE ABORTION ISSUE HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR REPUBLICANS BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT FIGURED OUT A GOOD WAY TO TALK ABOUT IT.

I DON'T THINK THE STATE'S RIGHTS DISCUSSION IS ALL THAT HELPFUL.

IN OUR LAST POLL, THE POLL WE RELEASED TODAY 55% OF VOTERS TOLD US THAT THEY THINK THE RESULTS OF THIS ELECTION WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON PENNSYLVANIA'S ABORTION LAWS.

SO I DO PERHAPS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT FROM DENNIS IN THAT I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF VOTERS THINKING ABOUT IT.

THIS IS THEIR FOREMOST ISSUE.

IN FACT, WHEN WE LOOK AT HARRIS VOTERS IT'S ONE OF THEIR TOP ISSUES, TOP REASONS FOR VOTING FOR HER.

AND I THINK WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL, BECAUSE IN 2022 IT LOOKED LIKE THE ECONOMY WAS GOING TO SWAMP EVERY OTHER CONCERN AND WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT.

THE ECONOMY AND ABORTION RIGHTS BECAUSE OF THE DOBBS DECISION CREATED THIS DUAL SET OF ISSUES AND IT HELPED PROPEL DEMOCRATS.

AND I THINK THAT IS THE ONE THING THAT'S HELPING THEM STAY IN THE RACE GIVEN ALL THE ECONOMIC CONCERNS THAT VOTERS HAVE.

>> I WANT TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHEN WE MIGHT KNOW THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION.

SO THE OUTCOME IS IN JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN A WEEK.

BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO KNOW THE OUTCOME OF THE RACE FOR DENNIS ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT HOW LONG WE HAVE TO WAIT?

>> WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT-AND-SEE WHO SHOWS UP.

IT COULD BE A SWING ELECTION WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE SORT OF DOING WELL NATIONWIDE.

IT COULD BE THE OTHER WAY WHERE TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS ARE DOING WELL NATIONWIDE.

IF IT'S SORT OF A WAVE IN EITHER DIRECTION WE'LL PROBABLY KNOW QUICKLY.

BUT IF IT'S NECK-AND-NECK, AND NEITHER CANDIDATE IS ABLE TO PULL OUT IN FRONT, THEN IT WILL TAKE A WHILE.

PENNSYLVANIA DOESN'T ALLOW THE COUNTING OF ABSENTEE VOTES NOT THE OPENING OF THE ENVELOPES UNTIL 7:00 A.M. ON ELECTION DAY.

IF IT IS A TIGHT RACE IT WILL TAKE DAYS TO FIND OUT THE WINNER.

>> BERWOOD THOUGHTS ON WHEN WE MIGHT KNOW IF IT WILL BE A COUPLE DAYS AND ALSO IF IT DOES STRETCH OUT WHAT THE IMPACT OF THAT IS?

>> DENNIS MAKES A GREAT POINT.

IT DEPENDS ON THE SIZE OF THE LEAD.

EVERYTHING WE KNOW RIGHT NOW IS IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE RACE.

LAST I CHECKED, THERE HAVE BEEN I BELIEVE 1.7 MILLION ABSENTEE BALLOTS MAIL-IN BALLOTS REQUESTED.

I THINK JUST UNDER 800,000 HAVE BEEN RETURNED SO FAR.

SO THAT IS A LOT OF BALLOTS TO COUNT.

NOW, WE'VE BEEN TOLD THAT THE STATE AND THE COUNTY ELECTION OFFICIALS WHO DO THE COUNTING HAVE IMPROVED THEIR PROCEDURES SINCE LAST TIME AND THEY ARE CONFIDENT THEY CAN DO IT MORE QUICKLY.

BUT I STILL THINK IN A CLOSE RACE DECIDED BY TENS OF THOUSANDS OF VOTES, IT COULD TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR US TO KNOW THE OUTCOME.

SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT.

I HOPE THAT IT DOESN'T TAKE LONG.

BUT IN A REALLY CLOSE RACE, WITH PORE THAN TWO -- MORE THAN TWO MILLION MAIL-IN BALLOT IT IS WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS TO WRAP UP.

>> THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TENS OF THOUSANDS OF VOTES.

>> CLOSE ENOUGH THE MAIL-IN BALLOTS THEY MATTER.

I WONDER, TOO, IF WE'RE HAVING TO WAIT FOR THE RESULTS AND ISSUES OF TRUST IN THE ELECTIONS WHICH CONTINUES TO COME UP, IF WE'VE REACHED A POINT OF NO RETURN ON THAT.

ARE PEOPLE GOING TO FIND A WAY TO HAVE FAITH IN THE ELECTIONS AND BELIEVE THE OUTCOME OR WILL THIS BE AN ONGOING ISSUE.

YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT, DENNIS?

>> THIS IS ONE OF THE SCARIER THINGS ABOUT THIS ELECTION.

TRUMP HAS MADE THAT SORT OF AN EXPLICIT EFFORT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ELECTION ABOUT THE PROCESS, ABOUT THE FAIRNESS.

SO HE IS ALREADY FILING LAWSUITS ABOUT THE WAY STATES AND COUNTIES ARE COUNTING VOTES AND COUNTING INCLUDING OR NOT INCLUDING FOR EXAMPLE WHETHER THERE IS A SIGNATURE ON THE ENVELOPE AND ALL THESE OTHER THINGS.

TRUMP HAS NOT SAID THAT HE WOULD ACCEPT THE ELECTION RESULTS.

HE DIDN'T SAY THAT FOUR YEARS AGO AND HE FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH HIS RHETORIC AT THE TIME OF CONTINUING TO DENY THE ELECTION RESULTS.

I HOPE THAT WE HAVE AN OUTCOME THAT IS CLEAR ENOUGH FOR TRUMP OR FOR HARRIS THAT WE DON'T HAVE TO GO THROUGH THAT AGAIN.

>> DENNIS ARE WE GOING TO BE STUCK IN THAT MODE AND REVISITING THAT MODE OF SOME PEOPLE QUESTIONING THE RESULTS?

IS THERE A CHANCE THAT WE COULD MOVE PAST THAT?

>> WELL, I HAVE HOPE FOR DEMOCRACY.

I THINK IN THE LOCK RUN WE -- LONG RUN WE WILL RETURN TO A NORMALCY WHERE CANDIDATES RESPECT ELECTION RESULTS.

I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THIS ELECTION.

BUT IF WE LOOK IN FOUR YEARS OR EIGHT YEARS I THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE CAN RETURN TO THAT.

I THINK A LOT OF AMERICANS CLAMOR FOR THAT.

>> WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT ARE YOU HOPEFUL IN THE SAME WAY?

>> YOU HAVE TO BE HOPEFUL ABOUT IT.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TRUST IN ELECTIONS PEOPLE OFTEN FEEL THAT THEIR LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE RUN WELL.

IT'S WHAT HAPPENS IN OTHER PLACES.

AND, YOU KNOW, I MEAN, I SUSPECT THAT AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, IF OUR POLITICIANS MAKE IT AN ISSUE IT BECOMES AN ISSUE.

IF THEY DON'T, THEN IT KIND OF RECEDES.

SO I'M WITH DENNIS.

I HOPE WE HAVE AN OUTCOME THAT MAKES IT CLEAR WHO WINS.

AND THAT WE CAN PUT ALL THAT ELECTION DENIALISM BEHIND US.

>> JUST ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT.

I WILL ASK YOU QUICK YOU HAVE THE NEW POLL OUT.

WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU?

WHAT WAS YOUR TAKEAWAY FROM IT?

>> JUST HOW CLOSE THE ELECTION IS AND HOW PESSIMISTIC PEOPLE ARE FEELING AT THE MOMENT.

THEY ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH OUR POLITICS.

AND I THINK THAT'S IN PART WHY THEY BELIEVE THE ELECTION DENIALISM THINGS.

THEY JUST DON'T FEEL THE GOVERNMENT SERVES THEM WELL AND I THINK THAT IS TRUE ON BOTH SIDES.

AND THAT'S SORT OF PESSIMISM THAT WE SEE IN THE POLLING.

IT WOULD BE NICE TO GET BEYOND THAT AT SOME POINT SOON.

>> I AGREE WITH THAT.

AND DENNIS WE HAVE LESS THAN A MINUTE LEFT WHAT WILL YOU BE WATCHING FOR ON ELECTION DAY?

>> I WILL BE LOOKING FOR THE EARLY STATES GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA THEIR POLLS CLOSE AT 7:00.

THAT WILL BE THE FIRST INDICATOR IF IT'S CALLED EITHER WAY FOR TRUMP OR HARRIS AT 7:00, THEN I THINK THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FOLLOW SUIT.

>> BERWOOD YOST AND DENNIS PLANE THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR EXPERTISE WITH US AND GIVING US IDEAS ABOUT WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION DAY.

I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE UP LATE AT NIGHT THOUGH WE MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO FIND OUT THE RESULTS OF THE POLLS THAT NIGHT IT WILL BE A LATE NIGHT FOR MANY PEOPLE.

WE APPRECIATE YOU COMING IN AND SHARING YOUR INSIGHTS WITH US THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> YOU'RE WELCOME THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING US.

>> OUR GUESTS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN BERWOOD YOST AND DENNIS PLANE.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND LISTENING TO WPSU'S CONVERSATIONS LIVE.

AND PLEASE REMEMBER TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY NOVEMBER 5TH.